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The Art Of Minimizing Regret

Designing decisions so that correction costs less than bravado.

SeriesMarkets & Risk
Article20211 min readRegret MinimizationDesignDecisions

To minimize regret, change the shape of the next move, not the size of your intentions. We do this by favoring reversible steps, public notes, and defaults that fail humanely.

flowchart TD
  A[Decision] */} B{Reversible?}
  B -- yes */} C[Try Small]
  B -- no */} D[Add Witnesses]
  C */} E[Write Receipt]
  D */} E
  E */} F[Observe]

The rule is ancient. Ships hugged the coastline when instruments were crude. Guilds wrote down standards. Communities built festivals into calendars so repairs would happen before the harvest. The modern version is less charming, but the point is the same: decide in a way that preserves options.

I keep a regret ledger: If this goes wrong, what will I pay to unwind it? If the answer is a weekend and a note, I proceed. If it is a quarter and three apologies, I look for a reversible preface. Orwell would approve of the bluntness. Austen would ask you to state whom your choice protects. Bourdain, I think, would simply get cooking.

Regret is not a dragon to be slain, but a knob to be turned down by making the next choice cheaper to undo. It sounds like nothing. It feels like civilization.

TC

Author

Terry Chen

Technology executive and builder focused on AI safety, cybersecurity, and decision-support systems.

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